Cafum's Blog

Fat Turkeys Approach The Carolinas

cafum — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 19:10:18 +0000

Fat Turkeys Approach: As we move toward Thanksgiving, our drier-than-normal weather continues to be the headline. Obviously, this is evidence of La Nina’s firm grip on the pattern as we move toward December. Fortunately, not as many people like rainy days as sunny days :). Still, it would help in a number of different ways to soak up some good rain. A new variable, however, gives reason for optimism… cold air is poised to move south currently positioned in southern Canada. Due to this influence, a more amplified pattern will take shape next week and it looks as if we may be looking at a good opportunity for rain by next Tuesday.

Forecast Model Discussion: Hopefully this discussion will help to see what we are focusing on as we forecast the days ahead, specifically the middle-to-late portion of next week. The European model (above/left) shows a projection of conditions next Tuesday. The orange arrow indicates a southwest wind flow at 10,000ft originating from the western Gulf of Mexico. This southwest wind flow is associated with a low pressure system and clearly supports the idea of some soaking rains next Tuesday. Also, a good amount of cold air with a polar vortex (of sorts) is shown in blue… moving into the west and upper plains states.

Speaking of cold and the position of that cold airmass, the GFS paints a similar story to the European. The GFS map(above/right) is valid for two days later… 7AM on Thursday the 18th of November. Notice the majority of the cold airmass is spilling into the Western United States. I think the GFS may be a bit too far west with most of the cold and I think the placement of the coldest air will be in the middle of the nation. Also, a weaker area of cold air is projected to be moving across the northeast supplying the Western Carolinas with yet another dry airmass by late next week. That looks about right to us… drying out after the rain Tuesday with more sunny days.

Thanksgiving Projection: As for specifics on Thanksgiving, nobody can be confidently specific. One thing we know, there will be some cold air around. Odds are that it will be positioned either in the upper plains or possibly out in the western states. Some of that cold air may head into the Carolinas around Thanksgiving, but odds are we won’t deal with anything winter-like (other than a morning or two with lows in the 20s or 30s due to a clear sky & calm winds – nothing out of the ordinary).

December isn’t quite here yet, but there should be some fun and games in December as the activity level (storminess) cranks up a notch.

-C2

Snow pics this am from casper,wy

cafum — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 17:39:06 +0000

[URL=http://img301.imageshack.us/i/pics295.jpg/][IMG]http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5180/pics295.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

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snow pics this am in wy0ming

NW Upslope

cafum — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 22:38:16 +0000

It looks like the upslope has begun in most of NC high country. That should only continue and expand as we get into the late night. Winter forecasting coming soon from cafum 1.

Cafum Poll #1

cafum — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 19:07:08 +0000

View This Poll

We are BACK!!

cafum — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 18:39:51 +0000

We are back and better than ever. Cafum1 from WY and Cafum2 from SC

Lots of rain Coming for our region

cafum — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 13:59:07 +0000

Tons of rain coming for t he SE with a nice tropical connection…

cafum — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:48:41 +0000

Been Awhile

cafum — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 05:50:18 +0000

Good late night all!! It has been months since anything new was put on the blog, but we will start to light this site up like a christmas tree on christmas soon. Fall is just about here, and winter will be around the corner. looks like it could be a very nice one for folks in the SE. Stay tuned!

Cafum1

Possible Historic snowstorm for most of GA/upstate sc/western and central NC Significant storm for areas just to south of there.

cafum — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 00:23:18 +0000

SE snowstorm??

cafum — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 02:18:34 +0000

Models are trying to hint on a possible snowstorm in the SE. More after 00z models.