Fat Turkeys Approach:  As we move toward Thanksgiving, our drier-than-normal weather continues to be the headline.  Obviously, this is evidence of La Nina’s firm grip on the pattern as we move toward December.  Fortunately, not as many people like rainy days as sunny days :).  Still, it would help in a number of different ways to soak up some good rain.  A new variable, however, gives reason for optimism… cold air is poised to move south currently positioned in southern Canada.  Due to this influence, a more amplified pattern will take shape next week and it looks as if we may be looking at a good opportunity for rain by next Tuesday.

Forecast Model Discussion:  Hopefully this discussion will help to see what we are focusing on as we forecast the days ahead, specifically the middle-to-late portion of next week.  The European model (above/left) shows a projection of conditions next Tuesday.  The orange arrow indicates a southwest wind flow at 10,000ft originating from the western Gulf of Mexico.  This southwest wind flow is associated with a low pressure system and clearly supports the idea of some soaking rains next Tuesday.  Also, a good amount of cold air with a polar vortex (of sorts) is shown in blue… moving into the west and upper plains states.

Speaking of cold and the position of that cold airmass, the GFS paints a similar story to the European.  The GFS map(above/right) is valid for two days later… 7AM on Thursday the 18th of November.  Notice the majority of the cold airmass is spilling into the Western United States.  I think the GFS may be a bit too far west with most of the cold and I think the placement of the coldest air will be in the middle of the nation.  Also, a weaker area of cold air is projected to be moving across the northeast supplying the Western Carolinas with yet another dry airmass by late next week.  That looks about right to us… drying out after the rain Tuesday with more sunny days.

Thanksgiving Projection:  As for specifics on Thanksgiving, nobody can be confidently specific.  One thing we know, there will be some cold air around.  Odds are that it will be positioned either in the upper plains or possibly out in the western states.  Some of that cold air may head into the Carolinas around Thanksgiving, but odds are we won’t deal with anything winter-like (other than a morning or two with lows in the 20s or 30s due to a clear sky & calm winds – nothing out of the ordinary). 

December isn’t quite here yet, but there should be some fun and games in December as the activity level (storminess) cranks up a notch.

-C2